di Giacomo Gabellini
Stando al contenuto di un rapporto pubblicato recentemente dal Consiglio d’Europa, i promotori europei delle sanzioni prevedevano che la Russia avrebbe subito una caduta dell’export del 30% entro la fine del 2022 e una riduzione delle importazioni del 35%, con conseguente saldo della bilancia commerciale pari a un sonoro -21%.
I dati reali indicano che, nei primi sei mesi di sanzioni, la Russia ha registrato una crescita delle esportazioni del 37% (figura 1), una diminuzione delle importazioni del 6,5% (figura 2) e un incremento dell’avanzo commerciale del 262% (figura 3).
In compenso, il tracollo delle importazioni russe dai Paesi dell’Unione Europea è stato in larga parte compensato dall’incremento degli approvvigionamenti dalla Cina, e secondariamente dalla Turchia (figura 4).
«La Cina – aggiunge Robin Brooks dell’Institute of International Finance – è il più grande esportatore verso la Russia […] e sta impossessandosi di quote di mercato; allo stesso tempo, la Russia paga la Cina in valuta forte accumulata tramite l’export di petrolio e gas verso l’Europa». Aggiungiamo che la Russia si è appena imposta come terzo utilizzatore di yuan su scala globale. Secondo i dati forniti da Swift, imprese e banche russe sono state coinvolte nel 4% circa delle transazioni eseguite complessivamente in moneta cinese nel mese di luglio, a fronte dell’1,42% registrato a giugno.”
Tratto da: L’Antidiplomatico
192 thoughts on “Sanzioni russe, le previsioni dell’Unione Europea… e la realtà”
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