Le relazioni diplomatiche tra Russia ed Ucraina continuano, lentamente, a migliorare. L’ennesimo segnale positivo è giunto nella giornata di lunedì quando fonti dell’Usb, i servizi segreti russi, hanno confermato che le tre navi militari ucraine, sequestrate da Mosca in seguito allo scontro navale nello stretto di Kerch lo scorso dicembre, sono state restituite a Kiev. L’episodio aveva portato le due nazioni ad avvicinarsi, pericolosamente, ad un possibile conflitto ed aveva portato, tra l’altro, alla proclamazione della legge marziale in alcune regioni dell’Ucraina da parte di Kiev. Il nuovo sviluppo, invece, va ad inserirsi in un quadro di progressivo riavvicinamento tra le parti perseguiti anche grazie all’attivismo del presidente ucraino Volodymyr Zelensky, che intende porre fine al conflitto nel Donbass.
Segnali di pace
I capi di Stato della Federazione Russa e dell’Ucraina si incontreranno, il 9 dicembre, a Parigi per cercare di sbrogliare l’ingarbugliata matassa del Donbass. Verranno coadiuvati, nel corso del summit, dalla Cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel e dal presidente francese Emmanuel Macron. Negli ultimi mesi sono stati diversi i segnali che portano a pensare ad un allentarsi delle tensioni tra le parti: Mosca e Kiev hanno effettuato, nel mese di settembre, un maxi scambio di prigionieri dalla grande importanza simbolica. Le autorità russe avevano liberato, tra gli altri, i marinai coinvolti nello scontro navale di Kerch ed il regista ucraino Oleg Sentsov, detenuto da anni nelle carceri russe. Successivamente, come precondizione all’incontro di Parigi, l’esercito di Kiev e le milizie separatiste del Donbass si sono ritirate congiuntamente da alcuni punti di contatto lungo la linea del fronte, nello specifico presso Zolote e Petrivske. Il ritorno delle navi è l’ennesimo capitolo, dunque, di una storia che potrebbe portare alla definitiva pacificazione dell’Est dell’Ucraina e quantomeno ad un raffreddamento delle tensioni tra le parti. Uno sviluppo che, prima dell’elezione di Zelensky, sembrava veramente improbabile: il predecessore Petro Poroshenko, infatti, aveva mantenuto un atteggiamento più aggressivo e meno conciliante tanto con Mosca quanto in relazione alla questione del Donbass.
Le prospettive
Tutti gli occhi sono ora puntati su Parigi, da dove potrebbero giungere altre notizie positive. Un dialogo aperto e sincero, per quanto non facile, tra Putin e Zelensky potrebbe contribuire a sbloccare la situazione che ormai, dopo cinque anni di conflitto, si è incancrenita. I tredicimila morti causati dalla guerra e le gravi distruzioni nel Donbass gravano su un Paese, l’Ucraina, che solamente ora sta iniziando, lentamente, a riprendersi dopo una crisi economica e politica che l’ha portato sull’orlo del tracollo. Il presidente dell’Ucraina dovrà però vedersela con i contestatori interni, contrari ad ogni forma di compromesso con Mosca: nello specifico i gruppi nazionalisti ed i veterani di guerra, che vedono come fumo negli occhi una soluzione non militare del conflitto. Il percorso di avvicinamento di Kiev verso l’Occidente rende comunque difficile immaginare una riconciliazione profonda con la Federazione Russa, che continua a temere la perdita dell’egemonia nello spazio post-sovietico. Un eventuale passaggio dell’Ucraina nel campo euroatlantico, infatti, esporrebbe il territorio russo alla penetrazione strategica di alleanze politico-militari al momento ostili. Il Donbass, dunque, potrebbe essere seguito da altre crisi diplomatiche e da nuovi momenti di tensione che, però, potrebbero avere carattere più limitato e circoscritto.
Fonte:InsideOver
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