Di Fabrizio Poggi
La situazione in Donbass torna a scaldarsi. Dopo giorni di nuova intensificazione del fuoco ucraino sui villaggi di DNR e LNR a ridosso della linea del fronte, il 10 marzo è stato bersagliato in modo intenso il villaggio di Zolotoe-5, nella LNR: feriti alcuni miliziani. Nella DNR le forze ucraine hanno aperto il fuoco pressoché lungo tutta la linea del fronte. Nei giorni scorsi, vari testimoni avevano messo in rete brevi video di convogli ferroviari carichi di carri armati e mezzi militari ucraini diretti verso il Donbass.
Il 9 marzo, una delle voci a più larga diffusione della propaganda di Kiev, il giornalista Dmitrij Gordon, ha aggiunto nuovi elementi di preoccupazione. Al canale Ukraina 24, Gordon ha infatti parlato del 15 marzo come “data fatidica per l’Ucraina”. Abbiamo davanti, ha detto, «delle prove difficili. Penso che lunedì 15 marzo sarà un giorno pesante per la società ucraina, perché credo che le informazioni che verranno diffuse il 15 marzo, saranno storiche per l’Ucraina».
Secondo fonti interne al Donbass, il 15 marzo potrebbe iniziare infatti una forte offensiva ucraina in Donbass e il giornalista Jurij Kotenok ha citato due circostanze che destano preoccupazione: «la prima è che a Avdeevka, occupata dalle forze di Kiev, sono stati allestiti ospedali da campo supplementari. La seconda è che a Gorlovka, i reparti della milizia popolare hanno dichiarato lo stato di allarme accresciuto».
Il canale Novorosinform riporta le parole del vice Ministro per l’informazione della DNR, Danil Bezsonov, secondo cui l’escalation del conflitto è già in atto da giorni e Kiev non si preoccupa nemmeno di nasconderlo.
A questo punto, l’interrogativo principale riguarda l’atteggiamento di Mosca: a giudicare dalle notizie diffuse dai media ufficiali, il Cremlino, in caso di guerra aperta, non avrebbe intenzione di fare da inerte spettatore.
Il politologo Sergej Markov, considerato vicino al Cremlino, ha dichiarato a Ukraina.ru che se la situazione dovesse farsi critica per le milizie, soffierebbe senz’altro “il vento del nord”, come è stato «nel settembre 2014 e a gennaio 2015, quando fu assicurato il crack degli attacchi ucraini. Può darsi che ciò si ripeta. Ma è possibile anche che la Russia partecipi più attivamente alle operazioni e allora le forze di DNR e LNR potrebbero passare all’offensiva su larga scala e liberare vasti territori. Allora comincerebbe un passaggio in massa di ufficiali e soldati ucraini dalla parte del Donbass e della Russia, come era avvenuto in Crimea».
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Anche il direttore di Rossotrudnicestvo, Evgenij Primakov, si è detto convinto che la Russia non possa lasciare cittadini russi e russofoni in preda all’aggressione ucraina. Dello stesso parere anche il Presidente della Commissione difesa della Duma, Aleksandr Šerin.
In ogni caso, non lasciano ben sperare le dichiarazioni degli esponenti di primo piano della junta di Kiev, che si dicono convinti della potenza ucraina e, soprattutto, dell’appoggio internazionale, sicuri anche che Mosca abbia le mani legate per la questione del “North stream 2”.
D’altronde, osserva ancora Jurij Kotenok, anche quando, nel 2008, Mikhail Saakašvili attaccò l’Ossetia meridionale, qualcuno a Ovest gli aveva assicurato che Mosca non avrebbe reagito. Allo stesso modo, oggi, Kiev si muove su ordine di altri. E l’ex Ministro per la sicurezza della DNR, Andrej Pinčuk, ha dichiarato al canale Tsar’grad che Kiev non è tanto interessata al Donbass, quanto ad arrivare ai confini russi e al confronto con Mosca, per conto di soggetti esterni.
È ancora Sergej Markov a osservare che, in caso di confronto diretto con Mosca e successiva indizione di un referendum, la popolazione delle regioni ucraine di Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk, Odessa, Nikolaev, Zaporože, Dnepropetrovsk e Kirovograd darebbe un responso simile a quello dato nel 2014 in Crimea.
Altra cosa, ha detto Markov, è «che fare con gli ultranazionalisti. Credo sia necessario processarli per partecipazione al terrorismo. Non appena quei territori passassero sotto controllo russo, comincerebbero le indagini sui massacri del 2014, dopo di che si potrà aprire un tribunale internazionale».
E dunque: le mosse di Mosca. Ovviamente, le reazioni ufficiali sono per il momento abbastanza contenute. Il 10 marzo, il vice Ministro degli esteri, Andrej Rudenko ha dichiarato che il Cremlino adotterà ogni misura per impedire che il conflitto in Donbass torni di nuovo in una “fase calda”. Noi «stiamo seguendo attentamente la situazione e verranno adottate tutte le misure, per ridurre al minimo il rischio di tale evolversi, anche a livello diplomatico».
A Kiev, il capo di gabinetto presidenziale, Andrej Ermak, ha dichiarato che Kiev avrebbe elaborato un piano di “regolazione pacifica della situazione in Donbass”, già sottoposto all’attenzione di Parigi e Berlino (l’ultimo incontro del cosiddetto “quartetto normanno” tra Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Putin e Vladimir Zelenskij risale al dicembre 2019) e tale piano attenderebbe ora l’approvazione di Mosca.
Ammesso che Kiev lo abbia davvero presentato anche a Mosca (e, però, nemmeno Berlino e Parigi ne hanno fatto parola), tale “piano”, come scrive anti-spiegel.ru, non è altro che il rifiuto ufficiale e definitivo degli accordi di Minsk da parte della junta golpista ucraina.
Kiev avrebbe dovuto iniziare a realizzare i 13 punti degli accordi di Minsk già entro il 2015, ma sia l’ex presidente Petro Porošenko, sia Vladimir Zelenskij, se ne sono guardati bene, a partire dalla prevista riforma costituzionale che avrebbe dovuto garantire uno status speciale al Donbass, l’indizione di elezioni locali concordati con le autorità di DNR e LNR, un’amnistia generale e colloqui diretti con Donetsk e Lugansk.
A metà febbraio, Mosca aveva presentato all’OSCE un’iniziativa in tre punti per l’attuazione degli accordi di Minsk: sostegno a quegli accordi con l’approvazione del Consiglio di sicurezza ONU, richiesta di una sua pronta attuazione e un appello all’OSCE affinché se ne faccia garante. I Paesi occidentali, Germania e Francia comprese, e anche la Svezia, presidente dell’OSCE, hanno però votato contro l’iniziativa russa.
A questo punto, le reali intenzioni delle parti lasciano pochi dubbi.
Pensi che alle tue amiche e ai tuoi amici possa interessare questo articolo? Condividilo!
Kiev, a dimostrazione del ruolo di manovalanza bellica per conto terzi per arrivare a uno scontro diretto con la Russia, ha sempre posto come condizione per ogni accordo il controllo sulle frontiere tra Repubbliche popolari e Russia, rendendo con ciò evidenti i reali obbiettivi del conflitto. Ora, finito il relativamente pacifico (per il Donbass) intermezzo trumpiano, Kiev avverte di nuovo il vento in poppa soffiato da Joe Biden e va all’attacco.
Che sia il 15 marzo, o, più probabilmente, il mese di maggio (al momento, il terreno non è abbastanza asciutto e solido per l’impiego dei mezzi pesanti), non rimane che attendere.
Tratto da: Contropiano.org
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