di Luciano Lago
Come era facile prevedere, l’accordo sottoscritto fra la Cina e l’Iran nel marzo di quest’anno, che prevede la cooperazione strategica di 25 anni tra l’Iran ricco di petrolio e la Cina che rivendica lo status di potenza mondiale, sta cambiando le regole del gioco non solo in Medio Oriente, ma anche in Asia.
Gli analisti internazionali non hanno mancato di osservare che, con questo accordo, la Cina sta creando un nuovo “tentacolo strategico” per gli Stati Uniti e i suoi alleati nella regione, che non mancherà di modificare gli attuali equilibri di forze.
Considerando che tale accordo implicherà necessariamente investimenti cinesi su larga scala (400 miliardi di dollari) nelle infrastrutture e nei settori industriale e petrolchimico dell’Iran, questo rappresenterà un grosso polmone economico e finanziario per l’economia del paese persiano. La nuova stretta cooperazione di Teheran con Pechino segna una svolta nella lunga campagna di pressione a cui il paese è stato sottoposto da parte degli USA e dei paesi occidentali con una serie di sanzioni paralizzanti che avevano fatto precipitare la sua economia e deprezzare la moneta del paese.
La Cina rappresenta per l’Iran l’aggancio con una forte economia industriale che ha necessità di acquistare energia, petrolio e gas, mentre ha enormi potenzialità di investimento in infrastrutture e tecnologia avanzata per completare l’industrializzazione del paese.
Previsto nell’accordo anche il rafforzamento della cooperazione militare, già esistente, oltre alle capacità di intelligence e di prevenzione del terrorismo e collegherà strettamente l’Iran alla Belt and Road Initiative cinese come strumento di influenza globale, come è dichiarato nei piani cinesi e iraniani.
Entrambi i paesi, Iran e Cina hanno un nemico comune, gli Stati Uniti e la loro pretesa egemonica che crea provocazioni e problemi nell’area di interesse asiatica, nel Golfo Persico e nel Mar Cinese meridionale. In più l’Iran deve affrontare la minaccia continua di Israele che cerca di sabotare tutti i piani di sviluppo dell’Iran con sabotaggi sotto forma di cyber attacchi agli impianti nucleari, attacchi alle petroliere iraniane, eliminazioni mirate di scienziati e tecnici iraniani, operazioni di spionaggio e tentativi di infiltrazione interna di terroristi.
La Cina ha già iniziato a fornire all’Iran un supporto di intelligence per difendersi da questi attacchi, disponendo di una rete tecnologica di radar e apparecchiature elettroniche che sono all’avanguardia nel mondo.
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Questa cooperazione avvantaggerà notevolmente le capacità di difesa iraniana e già si parla della fornitura di caccia intercettori multiruolo J-20 di fabbricazione cinese che sono apparecchi di ultima generazione e che possono modernizzare la forza aerea del paese persiano. Oltre a questo molte altre apparecchiature militari di cui la Cina dispone e che sono facilmente accessibili all’Iran per migliorare la sua capacità di difesa aerea e avvistamento radar.
Indirettamente la cooperazione Iran-Cina andrà ad avvantaggiare anche l’asse della resistenza formato da Siria-Hezbollah e milizie sciite in Iraq, questi ultimi che ricevono sostegno e armi dall’Iran e che sono impegnati a combattere contro le forze occupanti statunitensi.
Una più ampia e profonda cooperazione tra Cina e Iran, soprattutto nel contesto dei loro stretti legami con la Russia e le relazioni ostili di questo “trio” con gli Stati Uniti, ha un grande potenziale per modificare il panorama strategico regionale ma in definitiva segna il fallimento della strategia statunitense, proclamata dall’ex presidente Trump, di isolare l’Iran e renderlo un paria internazionale. Questo non solo non è avvenuto ma, paradossalmente, ha reso più forte l’antagonismo dell’Iran ed attualmente l’amministrazione USA è costretta a trattare per riprendere le fila dell’accordo nucleare da cui gli USA erano usciti unilateralmente.
Alla luce degli ultimi avvenimenti, l’Iran è in una posizione di forza e non ha fretta di giungere ad un accordo a tutti i costi e tanto meno di capitolare alle condizioni che Washington vorrebbe imporre, ovvero la riduzione dell’arsenale missilistico e revisione del supporto alle forze della resistenza.
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Con il sostegno della Cina e della Russia l’Iran è in grado di rispondere a tono agli USA e sottrarsi ai ricatti delle potenze occidentali che vorrebbero un atteggiamento accomodante da parte delle autorità persiane
La Siria è l’altro paese indirettamente interessato al rafforzamento iraniano, visto che l’Iran fornisce un aiuto importante nella lotta contro i gruppi terroristi e contro le aggressioni continue di Israele. Non c’è dubbio che l’Iran potrà fornire in Siria tecnologia avanzata cinese per contrastare gli attacchi aerei di Israele e le azioni di sabotaggio attivate dalla entità sionista sul territorio siriano, di cui sono spesso vittime anche le forze iraniane presenti nel paese.
Con la nuova situazione determinatasi in Asia occidentale, gli Stati Uniti e i loro alleati potrebbero perdere gran parte della loro influenza, così come la possibilità di fare pressione su Teheran che, con l’appoggio di Pechino, potrebbe ripristinare la sua azione di supporto agli alleati regionali, da Hezbollah libanese allo Yemen, il tutto attirando la Cina tra i giocatori centrali in questa zona strategica che riveste grande importanza anche per Pechino.
Con le truppe americane considerate forze occupanti in Iraq e in Siria, sottoposte ad attacchi continui dalle forze della resistenza, e con il nuovo possente asse Iran-Cina-Russia che si è stabilito nell’area, Washington deve dire addio ai suoi progetti di egemonizzare e balcanizzare il Medio Oriente e prendere atto che il mondo è cambiato e non c’è più spazio per le pretese egemoniche della potenza americana.
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