Dobbiamo smettere oggi di estrarre combustibili fossili dal sottosuolo se vogliamo davvero davvero limitare a 1,5°C l’aumento della temperatura globale: i buoni propositi dei governi non sono supportati da impegni concreti, secondo questo studio.
Una grande parte delle riserve di combustibili fossili possedute oggi da nazioni e compagnie petrolifere dovrebbe rimanere stipata nel sottosuolo, se vogliamo porre fine alla crisi climatica. Un nuovo studio, infatti, ha dimostrato che non bisognerebbe estrarre il 90% delle attuali riserve di carbone e il 60% delle riserve di gas per avere un 50% di possibilità in più di limitare l’aumento della temperatura globale a quell’1,5°C previsto dagli Accordi di Parigi sul Clima.
Si tratta del primo studio scientifico che mette a nudo la forte discrepanza fra l’impegno siglato dalle varie potenze globali a Parigi e i piani espansionistici concreti dell’industria dei combustibili fossili: la situazione, secondo gli scienziati, è disperata.
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Secondo lo studio Stati Uniti, Russia e paesi appartenenti all’ex Unione Sovietica, detentori della la metà delle riserve di carbone mondiali, dovrebbero mantenerne il 97% nel sottosuolo (il tetto fissato per l’Australia è del 95%). Cina e India, che possiedono un restane quarto delle riserve mondiali di carbone, dovrebbero tenerne nel sottosuolo il 76%. I paesi del Medio Oriente, invece, detengono più della metà delle riserve petrolifere mondiali, ma c’è bisogno che almeno i due terzi di queste rimangano nel sottosuolo; il Canada deve lasciare intonse l’83% delle sue risorse petrolifere. Infine, nessun tipo di combustibile fossile dovrebbe essere estratto dal sottosuolo artico.
La situazione è critica: ovunque nel mondo si scoprano giacimenti di petrolio o di altro combustibile fossile i governi, dimenticando il loro impegno per il clima, iniziano subito ad estrarlo dal suolo il più presto possibile – denunciano gli autori dello studio. – Ma per fortuna un lato positivo c’è: se ci fermiamo oggi, passando a forme di energia rinnovabili e sostenibili, gli ambiziosi obiettivi contro la crisi climatica possono essere raggiunti.
Questo studio ha utilizzato un complesso modello sull’utilizzo dell’energia a scala globale che ha dato priorità ai combustibili fossili più facili ed economici da estrarre, come il petrolio saudita – riserve di combustibili molti difficili e costose da utilizzare, come il petrolio presente in Venezuela o in Canada, sono state lasciate fuori dal modello. Nel modello sono state inserite anche altre variabili, come ad esempio i costi che ogni nazione dovrebbe sostenere per passare a forme di energia alternative. Le proporzioni delle risorse non rinnovabili che non possono essere estratte, emerse da questa analisi, sono molto più alte rispetto a quelle diffuse da uno studio simile condotto nel 2015 – questo perché il tetto massimo all’aumento della temperatura globale è stato abbassato da +2°C a +1,5°C.

@ Riserve di combustibili fossili entro il 2050 e il 2100 da non poter estrarre per mantenere l’aumento delle temperature globali entro +1,5°C (@ Nature)
Lo studio sottolinea come la retorica del contrasto al cambiamento climatico messa in atto dai governi sia lontana anni luce dalla realtà dei fatti: nessun paese sta muovendo passi concreti per tagliare la produzione nell’uso di energie inquinanti. In un futuro sostenibile non c’è più spazio per i combustibili fossili: il passaggio ad energie alternative deve essere accelerato se vogliamo mantenere le attività umane oggi e proteggere il nostro benessere domani.
Tratto da: Nature, GreenMe
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