di Onur Sinan Guzaltan – uwidata
L’egemonia occidentale sta vivendo una grave crisi in tutto il mondo, non solo nelle sue dinamiche interne, ma anche nell’equilibrio di potere internazionale.
Mentre questo crollo ha provocato disastri economici, sociali, culturali e politici, la rivalità che si sviluppa intorno alle aree di divisione dove è in ritirata continua, confermando il proverbio che “la natura aborrisce il vuoto”.
Mentre alcune forze che si pensava fossero eterne nemiche stanno ora combattendo l’una accanto all’altra, alcune alleanze ritenute indistruttibili stanno crollando come castelli di carte.
Anche gli emirati del Golfo, creati dall’impero britannico, sembrano coinvolti in questo vortice ineludibile.
Diamo uno sguardo più da vicino ai cambiamenti e al disordine nella geografia del Golfo, una situazione importante per la Turchia date le sue relazioni economiche con una di queste nazioni: il Qatar.
‘Normalizzazione’ con Israele
Il dibattito sul cosiddetto “Deal of the Century” voluto dal presidente degli Stati Uniti Donald Trump è tutt’ora in corso tra i Paesi del Golfo.
I recenti sviluppi evidenziano che l’accordo, presentato al mondo come la “pace” arabo-israeliana, ha 3 obiettivi principali;
1. Lo scioglimento della lotta per l’indipendenza palestinese e il riconoscimento diplomatico di Israele da parte di tutte le nazioni arabe
2. Posizionare le nazioni arabe sulla linea dei piani USA-Israele contro Turchia e Iran
3. Il consolidamento dell’egemonia USA-Israele sulla geografia araba.
Gli Emirati Arabi Uniti (EAU) sono stati il Paese che ha mostrato il maggior sostegno alla nuova versione del Greater Middle East Project, il cosiddetto “Deal of the Century”.
Mentre gli accordi sono stati firmati tra gli Emirati Arabi Uniti e Israele sotto il patrocinio dell’amministrazione Trump, Bahrain e Oman sono stati i secondi in linea per la “normalizzazione”.
Mentre i media USA-Israele e degli Emirati Arabi Uniti hanno diffuso messaggi di “pace” al mondo con le loro forti reti di propaganda, nel frattempo l’Arabia Saudita, il più grande Paese del Golfo, non è stato ancora coinvolto nell’accordo.
È stato riferito dalla stampa che ci sono due principali consorterie all’interno della leadership saudita sulla questione di fare un accordo con Israele, e che c’è persino un disaccordo tra il re saudita Salman e il principe ereditario, Mohammed Bin Salman.
Arabia Saudita, Iran e Biden
Il fatto che mentre alcuni funzionari sauditi hanno inviato “messaggi di pace” a Israele, il principe Turki Al-Faisal, che è stato direttore dei servizi segreti sauditi per molti anni, ha criticato Israele definendolo “una potenza coloniale occidentale (…) Hanno incarcerato i palestinesi nei campi di concentramento” durante un vertice al quale ha partecipato anche il ministro degli Esteri israeliano, conferma la situazione di cui sopra.
Un fatto interessante sul principe Turki al-Faisal è che è noto per la creazione di al-Qaeda e la guerra contro molte nazioni nella regione, in particolare Iraq, Siria e Afghanistan, e gli attacchi terroristici dell’11 settembre, in cooperazione con lo Stato profondo degli Stati Uniti sotto l’amministrazione Bush.
È probabile che nei prossimi giorni sarà avviata un’epurazione all’interno della leadership saudita legata alle relazioni con Israele.
È interessante che la spaccatura all’interno della leadership saudita si sia ulteriormente allargata dopo che le elezioni presidenziali sono state vinte da Joe Biden.
Ci sono stati alcuni disaccordi tra i sauditi e gli Stati Uniti anche durante l’amministrazione Obama, e dopo l’accordo nucleare USA-Iran, il re saudita Salman ha visitato Mosca e ha rilasciato dichiarazioni a favore di una cooperazione con la Russia.
Pertanto, le politiche che l’amministrazione Biden perseguirà contro l’Iran saranno decisive nelle relazioni saudita-statunitensi e saudite-israeliane.
Non sarebbe scioccante vedere una leadership saudita più distante dagli Stati Uniti, ma che approfondisce la sua cooperazione con Russia e Cina eppure, nel frattempo, continua la sua rivalità regionale con l’Iran, nel prossimo futuro.
Ankara e Riad
Subito dopo le elezioni presidenziali statunitensi vinte da Biden, si sono verificati nuovi eventi per i rapporti tra Turchia e Arabia Saudita, in disaccordo da tempo.
CI sono stati messaggi di amicizia subito dopo l’incontro tra il presidente Erdogan e il re Salman.
L’allentamento delle tensioni tra Ankara e Riyadh potrebbe essere percepito come preliminare per l’amministrazione Biden. Il punto critico qui è se è possibile ottenere una normalizzazione tra Ankara e Il Cairo attraverso Riad, che come noto ha impatto sul Cairo.
È molto critico per la Turchia prestare attenzione all’equilibrio politico con l’Iran normalizzando le sue relazioni con l’Arabia Saudita. La Turchia ha il potenziale per riunire le amministrazioni di Riad e Teheran, se trova il modo giusto per farlo.
Le provocazioni di Stati Uniti e Israele sulla regione potrebbero potenzialmente essere neutralizzate in questo modo.
La visita di Kushner in Qatar
È noto che il Qatar, rimasto isolato dall’Arabia Saudita e dagli Emirati Arabi Uniti nel corso della loro rivalità regionale, intrattiene buoni rapporti con Turchia e Iran.
Tuttavia, avere buoni legami con la Turchia e l’Iran non significa che il Qatar si sia allontanato dall’influenza degli Stati Uniti.
Mentre gli Stati Uniti mantengono una presenza in Qatar con la base aerea di al-Udeid (la più grande base statunitense nella regione), nell’ultima settimana è stato firmato un accordo di cooperazione globale tra le forze navali dei due paesi.
Jared Kushner, genero e consigliere di Trump e noto anche come l’architetto del progetto di normalizzazione arabo-israeliano, ha fatto visita in Qatar la scorsa settimana.
Non sarebbe sbagliato dire che gli Stati Uniti ci hanno provato;
1. Per normalizzare le relazioni tra il Qatar e altri paesi del Golfo,
2. Per interrompere le relazioni tra Doha e Teheran,
3. Includere come partecipante anche il Qatar nel Deal of the Century.
I prossimi eventi mostreranno come il Qatar affronterà queste proposte.
Per riassumere, i cieli sono diventati di nuovo tempestosi nel Golfo dopo che Biden è stato eletto.
La ritorsione diplomatica di Turchia, Iran e Russia nell’area del Golfo interromperà sicuramente gli equilibri che gli Stati Uniti hanno stabilito nella regione.
Chiudiamo l’articolo, con una citazione di Jacques Vergès, un avvocato francese che ha fatto la storia con le sue incredibili capacità nell’arte della difesa.
In una delle sue interviste, a Vergès viene posta la domanda: “Difenderesti anche Hitler?” e risponde: “Difenderei persino George Bush. Ma solo se si dichiara colpevole”.
Possiamo trarre una conclusione per quanto riguarda il Golfo in stile Vergès; Se gli emirati del Golfo si dichiarano colpevoli e smettono di collaborare con l’imperialismo, ci sarà posto anche per loro in Eurasia.
(Traduzione de l’AntiDiplomatico)
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